El Oráculo de Occidente

Ya estuve revisándolo yo, pero no todo y lo que tenían era similar a lo que yo hallé. Sí he conseguido fotos guapas en MODIS, pero sin el ojo, ahora te pongo una aquí, mira:

Grace_MODIS_1

Grace_MODIS_2

Grace_MODIS_3

Grace_MODIS_4

Pues si vas a la página del MODIS, puedes bajarlas con más resolución si quieres. Esas son de 1 km pixel y las hay hasta de 250m pixel

Ya se ha producido otro fuerte terremoto en el mar de Cébeles. Hay una alerta preventiva de tsunami:

6.7MW Mar de Célebes

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 2150Z 07 OCT 2009

THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS…EXCEPT ALASKA…BRITISH COLUMBIA…
WASHINGTON…OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.

… TSUNAMI INFORMATION BULLETIN …

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY.

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME – 2141Z 07 OCT 2009
COORDINATES – 4.0 NORTH 122.8 EAST
DEPTH – 595 KM
LOCATION – CELEBES SEA
MAGNITUDE – 6.8

EVALUATION

THIS EARTHQUAKE IS LOCATED OUTSIDE THE PACIFIC. NO DESTRUCTIVE
TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS IN THE PACIFIC OR ELSEWHERE BASED ON
HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ALSO ISSUE TSUNAMI MESSAGES
FOR THIS EVENT TO COUNTRIES IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND SOUTH
CHINA SEA REGION. IN CASE OF CONFLICTING INFORMATION… THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE INFORMATION SHOULD BE USED FOR SAFETY.

THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA…BRITISH COLUMBIA…WASHINGTON…OREGON…CALIFORNIA.

Terremoto de 7.8Mw en las islas Santa Cruz, cerca de Samoa

Otro terremoto fuerte, ya van 3 en menos de una hora.

Islas Vanuatu 7.1M

Me voy a comer amigos, ahora vuelvo y seguimos.

Bueno Julio, si que fallo a veces, pocas, pero fallo. Pienso que van a ir a peor, pero con periodos cortos de relativa calma. Ya dije que Octubre sería el peor mes del año 2009 en cuestiones sísmicas (sin contar los meses que vienen detrás por no haberlos analizado).

En tanto a la localización de los epicentros no sé que decir. Todavía no he conseguido comprender en que se basa. Sé que donde hay placas más pequeñas se producen más, pero no acabo de comprender de que forma se elije el “donde”.

Falla el enlace Ubi. No, no sabía nada gracias.

Se ha producido un terremoto de mediana intensidad en España. Ha sucedido en Cuenca, exactamente el epicentro se localiza en Villar de Domingo García.

La magnitud según el IGN a sido de 3.6M y se ha sentido (faltan más datos) en la zona epicentral.

Éstos días pasados (desde el 1 hasta ahora día 14) se han producido en el mundo 17 terremotos en el mundo de grado superior a 6Mw y 3 de grado superior a 7Mw. Son 20 terremotos de importancia en dos semanas.

Recuerdo que según mis previsiones del día 30 de Septiembre y la confirmación del día 7, a partir de mañana día 15 o pasado mañana 16, viene otra secuencia peligrosa y viendo lo que ha dado de sí el conjunto de alineaciones formantes, puede ser algo realmente fuerte.

He re-copiado y re-pegado lo que dije el día 30 y el día 7:

“”Estaba revisando las alineaciones y confirmo lo que me tenía, nos vienen más terremotos fuertes en los próximos días.

El pasado día 30 dije:

“Bueno, he pegado una mirada por encima a los planetas. Mañana o pasado debería de producirse otro fuerte. También el riesgo persiste para toda la primera semana de Octubre y aún me atrevería a decir que incluso hasta el día 11 van a traer al menos 3 terremotos de importancia, además del que pueda producirse dentro de las próximas 48 horas. Después de eso, a partir del 15 o 16, viene otra secuencia peligrosa, pero así a primera vista menor.

Si no me equivoco, Octubre va a ser el peor mes en cuestiones sísmicas del año 2009 (decir también que no he mirado nada todavía de los meses siguientes hasta fin de año, así que sin contar esos dos meses finales).”

Ya veis que se ha confirmado lo que dije. Quiero corregir una cosa. Las alineaciones a partir de los días 15 o 16, no van a ser precisamente menores, también van a ser de órdago.”"

Hola Charly, gracias por confirmarlo.

Buenos días Juliius. Hombre, algo si saben: mentir chorizar, engañar, inventarse nicks, tomarles el pelo a los incautos, ir de hipocritillas simpáticos para sonsacar y colaborar con quien sea para desacreditar las investigaciones serias.

Si son muy “sabios” Julio, que te lo digo yo.

Ponlas si te place, las predicciones digo. Si mientras nombren la fuente y sea un sitio medianamente respetable cualquiera puede hacerlo (cómo si ésto fuera un secreto).

Lo que ellos no saben, es que a mi igual me da por empezar a hacer pronósticos equivocados a propósito… ¡anda! ¿y no lo habré hecho ya? JAJJAAAAAAAAAA

Si ya desde el momento en que pretenden deducir del Sol la actividad sísmica, se ve que no tienen ni idea de lo que dicen. También estuve un tiempo pensando en esa posibilidad hasta que me harté de ver que no era así. Yo como siempre, me callo lo que es vital, así nunca sabrán de que forma lo hago.

En tanto a los bocatas de choped no digo nada, ¡que luego me huele la boca!

Estoy harto de ver, que cuando se produce un huracán en una parte del planeta, en el otro lado se produce otro y sus intensidades suelen ir casi parejas, no solo en su potencia, también en sus evoluciones: si uno decrece, el otro igual, si uno aumenta, también lo hace el del otro lado del planeta. Pero claro, según la “ciencia” actual, ambos fenómenos no tienen ninguna relación. MENTIRA.

En fin. Aquí os dejo la última imagen del huracán Rick en el Océano Pacífico en dirección al Sur de California y también la ruta de Rick

Hola Rosaura, aquí en España ya sabes, no vienen huracanes… bueno, en ocasiones últimamente si han llegado los restos de alguno y hemos tenido vientos fuertes, pero no cómo en América.

En el caso de éste huracán, el Rick, tampoco parece que vaya a llegar allí. Según la previsión impactará en La Paz, justo en la punta de la península californiana, así que puedes estar tranquila, al menos por ésta vez.

Cuando algún otro aparezca, siempre puedes usar este enlace, el de CIMSS, que te indica sus rutas, aunque también puedes informarte en el NHC que ya conocerás… o bien me preguntas a mi, que con gusto lo revisaré.

Un abrazo

Ya está. Mira la imagen siguiente y verás que efectivamente va hacia allí, a no ser de que cambie de rumbo, entrará al Norte de El Dorado, en esa albufera que se ve en la foto.

Ruta de Rick

Rosaura, el huracán Rick ha perdido mucha de su fuerza, tanto que se ha rebajado hasta ser solo una tormenta tropical, gracias a Dios.

También su trayectoria a descendido bastante hacia el Sur, por lo pasará a 100 Km al Sur de El Dorado, probablemente sobre Mazatlan, así que el peligro ha descendido muchísimo, aunque conviene seguir alerta.

Ya vuelven los planetas a provocar temblores y vulcanismos, más tarde de lo esperado en mi previsión. Al final en los días siguientes al 15, se produjeron varios terremotos de grado 6, pero esperaba que fueran de magnitud superior.

Nevado del Huila lanzó lluvia de ceniza
Terremoto de magnitud 7 en el Mar de Banda

26 Terremotos de magnitud superior a 6 en Octubre y 4 de magnitud superior a 7

Javier, por lo que sabemos aquí de esa gente de Starviewer, es que son más falsos que las buenas intenciones de Obama. Además, tenemos sospechas fundadas de que se valían de mis previsiones para poder acertar con las suyas, por supuesto sin citar la fuente y atribuyéndoselas. Ellos “se rigen” por el Sol para definir cuando se va a producir un terremoto, si de verdad pudieran predecirlos, no se regirían por eso porque no sirve y yo ya lo sé hace más de un año porque también caí en ese error.

Con toda ésta vorágine de información no he podido hacer todavía previsiones, no me queda tiempo para ello. Ahora estaba echando un vistazo superficial y veo unas alineaciones peligrosas para finales de ésta semana. También otra serie para final de mes. Éste mes no veo que vaya a tener tantos terremotos importantes cómo el pasado Octubre, aunque es posible que veamos alguno de magnitud superior a 7.

Gracias Survivor por avisar. También en las Azores a temblado: EMSC terremoto en las Islas Azores

Lista del USGS para temblores en USA

Terremoto de 6.7mb en Islas Fiji

A veces me equivoco Luis, ten presente que es un método en estudio y le queda muchísimo por pulir, además de que sólo pegué una miradita rápida para la “predicción”.

Buenas noches Heras, bienvenida al blog. Cómo verás, éste apartado lo tengo algo descuidado por carecer de tiempo. Hace ya bastante que no hago previsiones en condiciones y es una pena, sólo doy un vistazo a las condiciones de forma muy superficial y eso resulta poco preciso.

Ya hace meses que los temblores en la península están aumentando y es preocupante. Sobre todo en la zona de la juntura de placas es donde se ve el mayor aumento de temblores. Antes o después vamos a tener un evento asesino, espero que no suceda en verano, porque un tsunami en le Mediterráneo en época estival sería catastrófico.

Saludos

Ya nos acercamos al último tercio del mes, recordar que es posible que se produzcan terremotos de mediana importancia en breve. Lo más probable a primeros de la semana que viene. Magnitud entre 7/8 Mw.

La segunda semana de Diciembre también será de riesgo. Máximo 7 Mw, muy posibles un par de terremotos de grado 6.

La actividad seguirá subiendo con cortas pausas hasta llegar a finales de año cuando llega el máximo.

También para fin de año y primeros de Enero se producirán unas alineaciones muy peligrosas, podemos incluso ver un terremoto de grado 8 o más, incluso de magnitud 9.

En fin, es sólo un vistazo rápido aproximado de las previsiones.

Tal y cómo dije, ya tenemos aquí el primero:

6.8 Mw Islas Tonga

Bienvenido al Oráculo, Jimy

En tanto a tu pregunta, no lo sé. Yo la web del IGN la uso nada más que para los temblores en la península, para lo demás, prefiero el Centro Sismológico Euro-Mediterráneo que es mucho más completo y profesional. Además, no minimizan las magnitudes cuando suceden en nuestra península cómo suele pasar con el IGN, pero claro, cada cual elige “sus fórmulas de cálculo de magnitudes”.

Y otro de 5.4mb en Lara Venezuela

Imagino Luis que se está desarrollando la energía no desarrollada el día 5 de forma global. Yo esperaba ese día un terremoto mediano, pero por lo visto, la energía de las alineaciones derivó en una zona tectonicamente estable; mejor que tiemble suavemente de forma generalizada y se pierda la carga.

A partir del día 9 vuelve a haber riesgo.

No voy muy acertado con las previsiones de éste mes. Aquí tenéis una comparativa entre la línea roja de la previsión con la azul del nivel real registrado hasta hoy día 14.

Un fuerte terremoto de 6,3 grados se siente en la costa de Andalucía

He actualizado la comparativa de la gráfica predictiva:

Ya he preparado las previsiones sísmico-volcánicas para Enero de 2010. He introducido unas variantes en mis cálculos para intentar ser más preciso, además veréis que hay unos añadidos en la predicción de color violeta donde tengo dudas de la magnitud esperada.

Tanto el EMSC_CSEM cómo el USGS lo marcan más bajo, sólo de 6.1 y 6.0 respectivamente.

Hasta el día 25, la predicción y la realidad son éstas:

Una predicción bastante mediocre ésta vez.

Survivo, he consultado bases de datos y ésta es la relación de eventos de grado 7 o superior desde 2004 hasta hoy:

2004= 16 (1 mayor de 9º)
2005= 11 (1 mayor de 7.8º)
2006= 12 (1 mayor de 7.8º)
2007= 18 (4 mayor de 7.8º)
2008= 13 (1 mayor de 7.8º)
2009= 16 (4 mayor de 7.8º)

Claro Miguel, puedes usar ésta del USGS. Y algo de aumento hay, aunque leve. Eso se nota más a escalas de tiempo mayores.

Saludos Rosaura, gracias a Dios que no les pasó nada y no fue más que susto. Lamento que mis previsiones de Diciembre sean tan desastrosas, ya veremos Enero que están hechas de forma parcialmente distinta.

Son mundiales Rosaura.

¡Saludos!

Gracias Pablo por contarnos eso. La verdad es que las zonas “seismicamente muertas” no existen, sólo están dormidas por un tiempo muy largo para los humanos, aunque geológicamente de corto o medio plazo. Pueden pasar miles de años en una zona del planeta sin que ocurra absolutamente nada y luego de repente, empezar a producirse continuos terremotos e incluso aparecer volcanes y fracturas de la corteza, incluso hundirse cientos de kilómetros de costa en un sólo día o en una semana.

Estaba revisando la actividad volcánica en el Smithsonian y todavía no aparece el reporte complaeto de Diciembre, pero si el de la última semana (también están los de la 1ª, 2ª y 3ª semanas y al menos en ese lapso de tiempo mi previsión se compenetra con lo ocurrido bastante bien:

“23 December-29 December 2009

New Activity/Unrest: | Bezymianny, Central Kamchatka (Russia) | Mayon, Luzon | Poás, Costa Rica | Redoubt, Southwestern Alaska | San Cristóbal, Nicaragua
Ongoing Activity: | Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka | Kilauea, Hawaii (USA) | Kliuchevskoi, Central Kamchatka (Russia) | Sakura-jima, Kyushu | Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia) | Soufrière Hills, Montserrat | Suwanose-jima, Ryukyu Islands (Japan)
This page is updated on Wednesdays, please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

The Weekly Volcanic Activity Report is a cooperative project between the Smithsonian’s Global Volcanism Program and the US Geological Survey’s Volcano Hazards Program. Updated by 2300 UTC every Wednesday, notices of volcanic activity posted on these pages are preliminary and subject to change as events are studied in more detail. This is not a comprehensive list of all of Earth’s volcanoes erupting during the week, but rather a summary of activity at volcanoes that meet criteria discussed in detail in the “Criteria and Disclaimers” section. Carefully reviewed, detailed reports on various volcanoes are published monthly in the Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network.

Note: Many news agencies do not archive the articles they post on the Internet, and therefore the links to some sources may not be active. To obtain information about the cited articles that are no longer available on the Internet contact the source.

New Activity/Unrest

BEZYMIANNY Central Kamchatka (Russia) 55.978°N, 160.587°E; summit elev. 2882 m

KVERT reported that during 21-23 December a large and intense thermal anomaly from Bezymianny was detected in satellite imagery. During 22-24 December seismic activity was elevated and fumarolic activity was observed. Gas-and-steam plumes rose to an altitude of 4 km (13,100 ft) a.s.l. The Level of Concern Color Code remained at Yellow.

Geologic Summary. Prior to its noted 1955-56 eruption, Bezymianny volcano had been considered extinct. Three periods of intensified activity have occurred during the past 3,000 years. The latest period, which was preceded by a 1,000-year quiescence, began with the dramatic 1955-56 eruption. That eruption, similar to the 1980 event at Mount St. Helens, produced a large horseshoe-shaped crater that was formed by collapse of the summit and an associated lateral blast. Subsequent episodic but ongoing lava-dome growth, accompanied by intermittent explosive activity and pyroclastic flows, has largely filled the 1956 crater.

Map

Source: Kamchatkan Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT)

Bezymianny Information from the Global Volcanism Program

MAYON Luzon 13.257°N, 123.685°E; summit elev. 2462 m

PHIVOLCS reported that during 23-29 December about 240 explosions from Mayon were seen during times of good visibility. Off-white, brownish, or grayish ash plumes rose as high as 2 km above the crater rim and drifted W and SW. Lava flowed down the Bonga-Buyuan (SE), Miisi (S), and Lidong (ESE) gullies, and on 29 December was 5.8 km from the summit crater in the Buyuan channel. Intermittent rumbling and booming noises were noted and seismicity continued to be elevated. Detached incandescent fragments descended the flanks. Sulfur dioxide emissions fluctuated between about 2,300 and 9,000 tonnes per day. On 24 December lava fountains rose 500 m above the summit crater. Three pyroclastic flows on 25 December traveled 2 km.

Geologic Summary. Beautifully symmetrical Mayon volcano, which rises to 2,462 m above the Albay Gulf, is the Philippines’ most active volcano. The structurally simple volcano has steep upper slopes that average 35-40° and is capped by a small summit crater. The historical eruptions of this basaltic-andesitic volcano date back to 1616 and range from Strombolian to basaltic Plinian. Eruptions occur predominately from the central conduit and have also produced lava flows that travel far down the flanks. Pyroclastic flows and mudflows have commonly swept down many of the approximately 40 ravines that radiate from the summit and have often devastated populated lowland areas. Mayon’s most violent eruption, in 1814, killed more than 1,200 people and devastated several towns. Eruptions that began in February 2000 led PHIVOLCS to recommend on 23 February 2000 the evacuation of people within a radius of 7 km from the summit in the SE and within a 6 km radius for the rest of the volcano.

Map

Source: Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS)

Mayon Information from the Global Volcanism Program

POAS Costa Rica 10.20°N, 84.233°W; summit elev. 2708 m

OVSICORI-UNA reported that on 25 December a phreatic eruption from Laguna Caliente, a summit lake of Poás, was seen by visitors standing at a viewpoint to the S of the crater. Lake water mixed with sediment and blocks was ejected 550-600 m above Laguna Caliente and fell in the vicinity of the lake, within the crater. The amount of steam emitted from lava-dome fumaroles, at the S edge of the lake, increased subsequent to the eruption.

Geologic Summary. The broad, well-vegetated edifice of Poás, one of the most active volcanoes of Costa Rica, contains three craters along a N-S line. The frequently visited multi-hued summit crater lakes of the basaltic-to-dacitic volcano, which is one of Costa Rica’s most prominent natural landmarks, are easily accessible by vehicle from the nearby capital city of San José. A N-S-trending fissure cutting the 2,708-m-high complex stratovolcano extends to the lower northern flank, where it has produced the Congo stratovolcano and several lake-filled maars. The southernmost of the two summit crater lakes, Botos, is cold and clear and last erupted about 7,500 years ago. The more prominent geothermally heated northern lake, Laguna Caliente, is one of the world’s most acidic natural lakes, with a pH of near zero. It has been the site of frequent phreatic and phreatomagmatic eruptions since the first historical eruption was reported in 1828. Poás eruptions often include geyser-like ejection of crater-lake water.

Map

Source: Observatorio Vulcanologico y Sismologico de Costa Rica-Universidad Nacional (OVSICORI-UNA)

Poás Information from the Global Volcanism Program

REDOUBT Southwestern Alaska 60.485°N, 152.742°W; summit elev. 3108 m

AVO reported that during 27-28 December seismic activity from Redoubt changed from the pattern noted during the previous five months, and was characterized by a series of small repetitive earthquakes that occurred in the vicinity of the summit. The Volcanic Alert Level was raised to Advisory and the Aviation Color Code was raised to Yellow. Based on pilot reports and web camera views, no unusual activity or plumes were noted.

Geologic Summary. Redoubt is a 3108-m-high glacier-covered stratovolcano with a breached summit crater in Lake Clark National Park about 170 km SW of Anchorage. Next to Mount Spurr, Redoubt has been the most active Holocene volcano in the upper Cook Inlet. Collapse of the summit of Redoubt 10,500-13,000 years ago produced a major debris avalanche that reached Cook Inlet. Holocene activity has included the emplacement of a large debris avalanche and clay-rich lahars that dammed Lake Crescent on the south side and reached Cook Inlet about 3500 years ago. Eruptions during the past few centuries have affected only the Drift River drainage on the north. Historical eruptions have originated from a vent at the north end of the 1.8-km-wide breached summit crater. The 1989-90 eruption of Redoubt had severe economic impact on the Cook Inlet region and affected air traffic far beyond the volcano.

Map

Source: Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO)

Redoubt Information from the Global Volcanism Program

SAN CRISTOBAL Nicaragua 12.702°N, 87.004°W; summit elev. 1745 m

Based on analyses of satellite imagery, the Washington VAAC reported that on 26 December an ash plume from San Cristóbal drifted 90 km WSW.

Geologic Summary. The San Cristóbal volcanic complex, consisting of five principal volcanic edifices, forms the NW end of the Marrabios Range. The symmetrical 1,745-m-high youngest cone, San Cristóbal itself (also known as El Viejo), is Nicaragua’s highest volcano and is capped by a 500 x 600 m wide crater. El Chonco, with several flank lava domes, is located 4 km to the west of San Cristóbal; it and the eroded Moyotepe volcano, 4 km to the NE of San Cristóbal, are of Pleistocene age. Volcán Casita contains an elongated summit crater and lies immediately E of San Cristóbal; Casita was the site of a catastrophic landslide and lahar in 1998. The Plio-Pleistocene La Pelona caldera is located at the eastern end of the San Cristóbal complex. Historical eruptions from San Cristóbal, consisting of small-to-moderate explosive activity, have been reported since the 16th century. Some other 16th-century eruptions attributed to Casita volcano are uncertain and may pertain to other Marrabios Range volcanoes.

Map

Source: Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC)

San Cristóbal Information from the Global Volcanism Program

Ongoing Activity

KARYMSKY Eastern Kamchatka 54.05°N, 159.45°E; summit elev. 1536 m

KVERT reported that during 18-25 December a thermal anomaly over Karymsky was detected in satellite imagery. Seismic data were not available due to technical problems. Based on information from the Yelizovo Airport (UHPP), the Tokyo VAAC reported that on 25 December an ash plume rose to an altitude of 6.7 km (22,000 ft) a.s.l. and drifted SE. KVERT noted three linear areas of ash deposits 10 km SE of Karymsky. The Level of Concern Color Code remained at Orange.

Geologic Summary. Karymsky, the most active volcano of Kamchatka’s eastern volcanic zone, is a symmetrical stratovolcano constructed within a 5-km-wide caldera that formed about 7,600-7,700 radiocarbon years ago. Construction of the Karymsky stratovolcano began about 2,000 years later. The latest eruptive period began about 500 years ago, following a 2,300-year quiescence. Much of the cone is mantled by lava flows less than 200 years old. Historical eruptions have been Vulcanian or Vulcanian-Strombolian with moderate explosive activity and occasional lava flows from the summit crater. Most seismicity preceding Karymsky eruptions has originated beneath Akademia Nauk caldera, which is located immediately S of Karymsky volcano and erupted simultaneously with Karymsky in 1996.

Map

Sources: Kamchatkan Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT), Tokyo Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC)

Karymsky Information from the Global Volcanism Program

KILAUEA Hawaii (USA) 19.421°N, 155.287°W; summit elev. 1222 m

During 23-29 December, HVO reported that lava flowed SE from beneath Kilauea’s Thanksgiving Eve Breakout (TEB) and rootless shield complex through a lava tube system, reaching the ocean at Waikupanaha. Thermal anomalies detected by satellite and visual observations revealed active lava flows on and at the base of the pali, and on the coastal plain. On 26 December, explosions at the ocean entry ejected material 15 m high. Incandescence was seen almost daily coming from Pu’u ‘O’o crater. The vent in Halema’uma’u crater continued to produce a plume that drifted mainly SW, dropping small amounts of ash, and occasionally fresh spatter, downwind. Incandescence originated from a very active, sloshing lava surface within a single opening on the deep floor of the vent cavity. Parts of the opening rim periodically collapsed into the lava surface generating spatter that deposited on the floor and walls of the vent cavity.

Geologic Summary. Kilauea, one of five coalescing volcanoes that comprise the island of Hawaii, is one of the world’s most active volcanoes. Eruptions at Kilauea originate primarily from the summit caldera or along one of the lengthy E and SW rift zones that extend from the caldera to the sea. About 90% of the surface of Kilauea is formed of lava flows less than about 1,100 years old; 70% of the volcano’s surface is younger than 600 years. A long-term eruption from the East rift zone that began in 1983 has produced lava flows covering more than 100 sq km, destroying nearly 200 houses and adding new coastline to the island.

Map

Source: US Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO)

Kilauea Information from the Global Volcanism Program

KLIUCHEVSKOI Central Kamchatka (Russia) 56.057°N, 160.638°E; summit elev. 4835 m

KVERT reported that during 18-25 December seismic activity from Kliuchevskoi was above background levels and lava continued to flow down the ESE flank. Strombolian activity ejected material 300 m above the crater. Satellite imagery revealed a large daily thermal anomaly at the volcano. The Level of Concern Color Code remained at Orange.

Geologic Summary. Kliuchevskoi is Kamchatka’s highest and most active volcano. Since its origin about 7,000 years ago, the beautifully symmetrical, 4,835-m-high basaltic stratovolcano has produced frequent moderate-volume explosive and effusive eruptions without major periods of inactivity. More than 100 flank eruptions, mostly on the NE and SE flanks of the conical volcano between 500 m and 3,600 m elevation, have occurred during the past 3,000 years. The morphology of its 700-m-wide summit crater has been frequently modified by historical eruptions, which have been recorded since the late-17th century. Historical eruptions have originated primarily from the summit crater, but have also included major explosive and effusive events from flank craters.

Map

Source: Kamchatkan Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT)

Kliuchevskoi Information from the Global Volcanism Program

SAKURA-JIMA Kyushu 31.585°N, 130.657°E; summit elev. 1117 m

Based on information from JMA, the Tokyo VAAC reported that during 23-29 December explosions from Sakura-jima produced plumes that rose to altitudes of 1.5-2.7 km (5,000-9,000 ft) a.s.l. and drifted E, SE, and S. During 23-25 and 27 December, pilots reported that ash plumes rose to altitudes of 2.7-4.6 km (9,000-15,000 ft) a.s.l.

Geologic Summary. Sakura-jima, one of Japan’s most active volcanoes, is a post-caldera cone of the Aira caldera at the northern half of Kagoshima Bay. Eruption of the voluminous Ito pyroclastic flow was associated with the formation of the 17 x 23-km-wide Aira caldera about 22,000 years ago. The construction of Sakura-jima began about 13,000 years ago and built an island that was finally joined to the Osumi Peninsula during the major explosive and effusive eruption of 1914. Activity at the Kita-dake summit cone ended about 4,850 years ago, after which eruptions took place at Minami-dake. Frequent historical eruptions, recorded since the 8th century, have deposited ash on Kagoshima, one of Kyushu’s largest cities, located across Kagoshima Bay only 8 km from the summit. The largest historical eruption took place during 1471-76.

Map

Source: Tokyo Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC)

Sakura-jima Information from the Global Volcanism Program

SHIVELUCH Central Kamchatka (Russia) 56.653°N, 161.360°E; summit elev. 3283 m

KVERT reported that during 18-25 December seismic activity from Shiveluch was above background levels, possibly indicating ash plumes rising to an altitude of 4.1 km (13,500 ft) a.s.l. Fumarolic activity was occasionally seen when the weather was clear. A video camera recorded an ash plume on 22 December. Analyses of satellite imagery revealed a large daily thermal anomaly from the lava dome. The Level of Concern Color Code remained at Orange. Based on information from KEMSD, the Tokyo VAAC reported that during 27-29 December eruptions produced plumes that rose to altitudes of 4.9-5.2 km (16,000-17,000 ft) a.s.l.

Geologic Summary. The high, isolated massif of Shiveluch volcano (also spelled Sheveluch) rises above the lowlands NNE of the Kliuchevskaya volcano group and forms one of Kamchatka’s largest and most active volcanoes. The currently active Molodoy Shiveluch lava-dome complex was constructed during the Holocene within a large breached caldera formed by collapse of the massive late-Pleistocene Strary Shiveluch volcano. At least 60 large eruptions of Shiveluch have occurred during the Holocene, making it the most vigorous andesitic volcano of the Kuril-Kamchatka arc. Frequent collapses of lava-dome complexes, most recently in 1964, have produced large debris avalanches whose deposits cover much of the floor of the breached caldera. Intermittent explosive eruptions began in the 1990s from a new lava dome that began growing in 1980. The largest historical eruptions from Shiveluch occurred in 1854 and 1964.

Map

Sources: Kamchatkan Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT), Tokyo Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC)

Shiveluch Information from the Global Volcanism Program

SOUFRIERE HILLS Montserrat 16.72°N, 62.18°W; summit elev. 915 m

MVO reported that during 11-19 December activity from the Soufrière Hills lava dome continued at a high level. Observations with a high-resolution thermal camera revealed multiple rockfall channels on the W, NW, N, and NE flanks of the lava dome. Frequent pyroclastic flows were noted on the northern flank; pyroclastic flows traveled 3 km W down Gages Valley into Spring Ghaut, as far as 4 km NE down the White River valley, and as far as 2 km in Tyers Ghaut (NW). Occasional pyroclastic flows descended Gingoes Ghaut (S) and Tar River valley (E). Heavy ashfall was reported in many inhabited areas of Montserrat. Ashfall also occurred on many other Caribbean islands, as far as Puerto Rico (400 km ENE). The Hazard Level remained at 4. According to a news article on 29 December, about 45 commercial flights scheduled to arrive at or depart from Puerto Rico were cancelled due to ash in the area.

Geologic Summary. The complex dominantly andesitic Soufrière Hills volcano occupies the southern half of the island of Montserrat. The summit area consists primarily of a series of lava domes emplaced along an ESE-trending zone. English’s Crater, a 1-km-wide crater breached widely to the E, was formed during an eruption about 4,000 years ago in which the summit collapsed, producing a large submarine debris avalanche. Block-and-ash flow and surge deposits associated with dome growth predominate in flank deposits at Soufrière Hills. Non-eruptive seismic swarms occurred at 30-year intervals in the 20th century, but with the exception of a 17th-century eruption that produced the Castle Peak lava dome, no historical eruptions were recorded on Montserrat until 1995. Long-term small-to-moderate ash eruptions beginning in that year were later accompanied by lava-dome growth and pyroclastic flows that forced evacuation of the southern half of the island and ultimately destroyed the capital city of Plymouth, causing major social and economic disruption.

Map

Sources: Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO), Associated Press

Soufrière Hills Information from the Global Volcanism Program

SUWANOSE-JIMA Ryukyu Islands (Japan) 29.635°N, 129.716°E; summit elev. 799 m

Based on information from JMA, the Tokyo VAAC reported explosions from Suwanose-jima during 24, 26, and 28-29 December. Details of possible resulting emissions were not reported.

Geologic Summary. The 8-km-long, spindle-shaped island of Suwanose-jima in the northern Ryukyu Islands consists of an andesitic stratovolcano with two historically active summit craters. Only about 50 persons live on the sparsely populated island. The summit of the volcano is truncated by a large breached crater extending to the sea on the east flank that was formed by edifice collapse. Suwanose-jima, one of Japan’s most frequently active volcanoes, was in a state of intermittent Strombolian activity from On-take, the NE summit crater, that began in 1949 and lasted nearly a half century. The largest historical eruption took place in 1813-14, when thick scoria deposits blanketed residential areas, after which the island was uninhabited for about 70 years. The SW crater produced lava flows that reached the western coast in 1813, and lava flows reached the eastern coast of the island in 1884.

Map

Source: Tokyo Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC)

Suwanose-jima Information from the Global Volcanism Program”